New Seat Details - Goole, Howden and Axholme

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Goole, Howden and Axholme been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	34,856	63.1%
LAB	16,782	30.4%
LIB	1,527	2.8%
UKIP	975	1.8%
Green	603	1.1%
MIN	477	0.9%
CON Majority	18,074	32.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Goole, Howden and Axholme: Map

List of old seats forming part of Goole, Howden and Axholme

Old seat: Brigg and Goole

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Brigg and Goole, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Brigg and Goole				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Riding of Yorkshire	Goole North	7,623	Goole, Howden and Axholme	2,533	2,588	149	261	43	0	0	0	5,574
East Riding of Yorkshire	Goole South	6,209	Goole, Howden and Axholme	2,338	2,475	118	267	45	0	0	0	5,243
East Riding of Yorkshire	Snaith, Airmyn, Rawcliffe and Marshland	7,535	Goole, Howden and Axholme	3,354	1,358	90	215	36	0	0	0	5,053
North Lincolnshire	Axholme Central	5,618	Goole, Howden and Axholme	2,715	865	53	69	54	0	0	0	3,756
North Lincolnshire	Axholme North	6,187	Goole, Howden and Axholme	2,650	1,454	54	91	63	0	0	0	4,312
North Lincolnshire	Axholme South	5,629	Goole, Howden and Axholme	2,745	821	39	72	50	0	0	0	3,727
North Lincolnshire	Brigg and Wolds	8,632	Great Grimsby North and Barton	3,930	1,652	120	214	94	0	0	0	6,010
North Lincolnshire	Broughton and Appleby	5,017	Great Grimsby North and Barton	2,336	915	76	149	50	0	0	0	3,526
North Lincolnshire	Burringham and Gunness	2,747	Scunthorpe	984	872	35	46	32	0	0	0	1,969
North Lincolnshire	Burton upon Stather and Winterton	8,662	Scunthorpe	3,634	1,855	101	211	83	0	0	0	5,884
	Total	63,859		27,219	14,855	835	1,595	550	0	0	0	45,054

The full details of these calculations are given on the Brigg and Goole seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Haltemprice and Howden

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Haltemprice and Howden, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Haltemprice and Howden				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Riding of Yorkshire	Cottingham North	6,534	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	2,671	1,821	247	0	90	0	245	0	5,074
East Riding of Yorkshire	Cottingham South	6,917	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	2,607	2,161	322	0	83	0	57	0	5,230
East Riding of Yorkshire	Dale	12,994	Goole, Howden and Axholme	6,483	2,946	461	0	136	0	297	0	10,323
East Riding of Yorkshire	Howden	3,955	Goole, Howden and Axholme	1,715	918	132	0	33	0	31	0	2,829
East Riding of Yorkshire	Howdenshire	11,526	Goole, Howden and Axholme	6,330	2,004	165	0	69	0	78	0	8,646
East Riding of Yorkshire	South Hunsley	7,983	Goole, Howden and Axholme	3,993	1,353	266	0	74	0	71	0	5,757
East Riding of Yorkshire	Tranby	7,475	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	2,741	2,359	393	0	100	0	66	0	5,659
East Riding of Yorkshire	Willerby and Kirk Ella	10,720	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	4,815	2,388	496	0	126	0	97	0	7,922
	Total	68,104		31,355	15,950	2,482	0	711	0	942	0	51,440

The full details of these calculations are given on the Haltemprice and Howden seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Goole, Howden and Axholme

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Goole, Howden and Axholme
East Riding of Yorkshire	Dale	14,354	Haltemprice and Howden	6,483	2,946	461	0	136	0	297	0	10,323
East Riding of Yorkshire	Goole North	8,172	Brigg and Goole	2,533	2,588	149	261	43	0	0	0	5,574
East Riding of Yorkshire	Goole South	7,688	Brigg and Goole	2,338	2,475	118	267	45	0	0	0	5,243
East Riding of Yorkshire	Howden	3,933	Haltemprice and Howden	1,715	918	132	0	33	0	31	0	2,829
East Riding of Yorkshire	Howdenshire	12,020	Haltemprice and Howden	6,330	2,004	165	0	69	0	78	0	8,646
East Riding of Yorkshire	Snaith, Airmyn, Rawcliffe and Marshland	7,411	Brigg and Goole	3,354	1,358	90	215	36	0	0	0	5,053
East Riding of Yorkshire	South Hunsley	8,005	Haltemprice and Howden	3,993	1,353	266	0	74	0	71	0	5,757
North Lincolnshire	Axholme Central	5,509	Brigg and Goole	2,715	865	53	69	54	0	0	0	3,756
North Lincolnshire	Axholme North	6,324	Brigg and Goole	2,650	1,454	54	91	63	0	0	0	4,312
North Lincolnshire	Axholme South	5,466	Brigg and Goole	2,745	821	39	72	50	0	0	0	3,727
	Total	78,882		34,856	16,782	1,527	975	603	0	477	0	55,220

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Goole, Howden and Axholme. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Andrew Percy (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,882
Turnout:	70.0%

Goole, Howden and Axholme: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Goole, Howden and Axholme: Overview

Introduction